Ausgewählte Veröffentlichungen

Zetschriften & Bücher

Energies 2017, 10
Bessa, R.J.; Möhrlen, C.; Fundel, V.; Siefert, M.; Browell, J.; Haglund El Gaidi, S.; Hodge, B.-M.; Cali, U.; Kariniotakis, G. Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry. Energies 2017, 10, 1402, doi:10.3390/en10091402
Abstract: PDF Version:

IEEE Power and Energy Magazine ( Volume: 15, Issue: 6, Nov.-Dec. 2017 )
J. Dobschinski, R. Bessa, P. Du, K. Geisler, S.-E. Haupt, M. Lange, C. Möhrlen, D. Nakafuji, M. d.l.T. Rodriguez, "Uncertainty Forecasting in a Nutshell: Prediction Models Designed to Prevent Significant Errors," in IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 40-49, Nov.-Dec. 2017. doi: 10.1109/ MPE.2017.2729100 URL 

Springer Book: Power Electronics and Power Systems
Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy into Bulk Power Systems - From Planning to Operation, Editors: Du, Pengwei, Baldick, Ross, Tuohy, Aidan (Eds.)

Chapter 3: The Role of Ensemble Forecasting in Integrating Renewables into Power Systems: From Theory to Real-Time Applications, 79-134.  Corinna Möhrlen and Jess U. Jørgensen

Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016)
G Giebel, J Cline, H Frank, W Shaw, P Pinson, B-M Hodge, G Kariniotakis, J Madsen, and C Möhrlen, Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues. Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016) 032042, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/753/3/032042.

IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2015
Tuohy, A.; Zack, J.; Haupt, S.; Sharp, J.; Ahlstrom, M.; Dise, S.; Grimit, E.; Mohrlen, C.; Lange, M.; Casado, M.; Black, J.; Marquis, M.; Collier, C., "Solar Forecasting: Methods, Challenges, and Performance," in Power and Energy Magazine, IEEE , vol.13, no.6, pp.50-59, Nov.-Dec. 2015, doi: 10.1109/MPE.2015.2461351
The deployment of solar-based electricity generation, especially in the form of photovoltaics (PVs), has increased markedly in recent years due to a wide range of factors including concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, supportive government policies, and lower equipment costs. Still, a number of challenges remain for reliable, efficient integration of solar energy. Chief among them will be developing new tools and practices that manage the variability and uncertainty of solar power.
Photovoltaics;Predictive models;Real-time systems;Satellites;Solar energy;Wind forecasting;Wind power generation;Wind speed,

IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2013
Mark Ahlstrom and Drake Bartlett, Craig Collier, Jacques Duchesne, David Edelson, Ulrich Focken, Alejandro Gesino, Marc Keyser, David Maggio, Michael Milligan, Corinna Möhrlen, Jonathan O’Sullivan, Justin Sharp, Pascal Storck, Miguel de la Torre, John Zack: Knowledge is Power IEEE Power & Energy, Vol.11 No.6, Nov./Dec. 2013. 
Abstract: Imagine a world where wind energy is dispatchable, following a set point from the system operator just like other power plants. Is this a future dream that will only happen with massive storage or other breakthroughs? No, not at all – it is happening now in major parts of North American and Europe. The implementation is straightforward with the right wind forecasts for the dispatch process, and in turn this creates more market participation and higher value for forecasts in other timeframes.
URL: IEEE Power & Energy

Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft 2012
Untersuchung verschiedener Handelsstrategien für Wind-und Solarenergie unter Berücksich tigung der EEG 2012 Novellierung (Link allows download of Author's Version) Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft, Vol.36, No.1 pp 9-25, 2012
Link to Journal Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft
ENGLISH TRANSLATION of full manuscript by Authors:
Investigation of various trading strategies for wind and solar power developed for the new EEG 2012 rules

Renewable Energy, 2010
D. Heide, L. von Bremen, M. Greiner, C. Hoffmann, M. Speckmann, S.Bofinger, Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe, In Renewable Energy, Volume 35, Issue 11, 2010, Pages 2483-2489, ISSN 0960-1481,

IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2009

Where the Wind Blows - Power Management and Forecasting in Areas with High Wind-Energy Penetration Levels IEEE Power & Energy, Vol.7 No.6, Nov./Dec. 2009. Link to Journal IEEE Power & Energy

Application of cost functions for large-scale integration of wind power using a multi-scheme ensemble prediction technique, in "Optimization Advances in Electric Power Systems", Ed. Edgardo D. Castronuovo, NOVA Publisher NY, ISBN: 978-1-60692-613-0, (2008).
Link to Book Optimization Advances in Electric Power Systems

IEEE Power & Energy Nov.-Dec. 2007
Predicting the Wind, Models and Methods of Wind Forecasting for Utility Operations Planning, IEEE Power & Energy, Vol.5 No.6, Nov./Dec. 2007.
Link to Journal IEEE Power & Energy

Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft 2007
On the Potential of coupling Renewables into Energy Pools, Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft, No. 1/2007, Vol.31, pp 35-46, 2007
Link to Journal Zeitschrift f. Energiewirtschaft

Konferenzen & Workshops, Schriften und Präsentationen

16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Berlin/Germany, from 25 to 27 October 2017
Uncertainty Forecasting Practices for the Next Generation Power System
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), R. Bessa (INESC, Portugal), G. Giebel (DTU, Denmark), J. Jørgensen (WEPROG, Denmark),G. Giebel (DTU, Denmark)
[Paper] (pdf 695kB)  [Presentation]  (pdf 4.75MB) 

Can Benchmarks and Trials Help Develop new Operational Tools for Balancing Wind Power?
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), C. Collier (DNV GL, USA), J. Zack (AWS Truepower, USA), J. Lerner (Vaisala, USA)
[Paper] (pdf 375kB)  [Presentation]  (pdf 738kB) 

2017 UVIG Forecasting Workshop "Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations",
Atlanta, 20-22 June 2017

Tutorial on Integration of Uncertainty Forecasts into Power System Operations
Applications and Value of Uncertainty Forecasts  [Presentation] (PDF 1.77 Mbyte) 
Session 1: Meteorology, Climate and the Electric Sector
Meteorological Data C ollection: Results from Eirgrid’s Met Mast and Alternatives Study  [Presentation] (PDF 435 Kbyte)
Session 4: Benchmarking, Trials and Evaluation
IEA Wind Task 36 Status and Progres  [Presentation] (PDF 514 Kbyte) ---> see also IEA Wind Task 36 Wind energy forecasting webpage -> Publications
Wind and Solar Forecasting Trials: Do’s and Don’ts, Part 1 Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Forecasting Trials ,T. Maupin, Vaisala  [Presentation]
Wind and solar Forecasting Trials: do's and don'ts, Part 2:Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Forecasting Trials Evaluation of Forecasting Approaches and Selection,  J. W. Zack, AWSTruepower 
Why Do Forecast Trials Often Fail to Answer the Questions for which End-Users Need Answers: A Forecaster’s Point of View, C. Collier, DNV-GL   [Presentation]

Session 7: Renewable Ener gy, Energy Trading, Market Evolution and the Role of Forecasting
Use of Probabilistic Forecasting Tools in Energy Trading  [Presentation] (PDF 1005 Kbyte)

15th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms,

, 15 - 17 November, 2016
Use of Forecast Uncertainties in the Power Sector: State-of-the­Art of Business Practices
[Paper] (258kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 494kB)

TORQUE 2016: The Science of Making Torque from Wind Conference, München, 5-7 Oktober, 2016
Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues
[Paper] (712kb)

IEA Wind Task 36 Workshop, Barcelona, 9. Juni 2016
Causes of wind power forecast uncertainty and how we can learn to deal with it
[Presentation] (3.1MB)

2015 UVIG Workshop "Variable Generation Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Denver, CO, 17-18 Feb 2015
Tutorial on Stochastic Forecasting Methods and Applications
[Presentation] (PDF 1.44 Mbyte) and [Summary] (PDF 27 kbyte)
Session 1: How to Run a Forecasting Trial and How to Get the Most Value from a Set of Multiple Forecast Vendors
[Presentation] (PDF 673 Kbyte) and [Summary] (PDF 28 kbyte)
Session 4: Global VG Forecasting and Market Operation (MO) Experience
[Presentation] (PDF 2.07 Mbyte) and [Summary] (PDF 30 kbyte)

12th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Berlin, 2014
Reserve forecasting for enhanced Renewable Energy management
[Paper] (258kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 494kB)

Meteomind Energiewetterkonferenz, Leipzig, 17./18.06.2014
Trading strategies in the Enery Market using Ensemble Forecasts
[Deutsche Presentation] (PDF 3.4 Mbyte)

Workshop on Forecasting, Balancing and Scheduling of Renewable Energy in India - Organisation: Indo-German Energy Forum Support Office and Ministry of New and Renewable Energy of India, New Dehli, 5.-6. May 2014
Wind Forecasting in India - Global experience transferred to Local Challenges
[Presentation] (PDF 5.8 Mbyte)

2014 UVIG Workshop "Variable Generation Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Tucson, AZ, 25-26 Feb 2014
Sesstion 4: TSO Updates on Forecasting Applications in Market Design and System Operations II
[Presentation] (PDF 935 Kbyte)
Session 6: What's on the Horizon ?
[Presentation] (PDF 1.4 Mbyte)

2013 UVIG Workshop "Variable Generation Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Salt Lake City, UT, Feb 2013
Forecasting and European Market Developments
[Presentation] (PDF 1.2 Mbyte)
Variable Generation Energy Trading in Denmark
[Presentation] (PDF 0.9 Mbyte)

2012 UVIG Workshop "Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Tucson, AZ, Feb 2012
Large-scale forecasting with Ensemble Forecasts
[Presentation] (PDF 1.9 Mbyte )
Large-scale cross-country forecasting with the help of Ensemble Forecasts
[Presentation] (PDF 0.7 Mbyte)

2012  RAVE - Research at Alpha Ventus - Konferenz
Advanced on shortest-term predictability with Ensemble Kalman filtering
[Presentation] (PDF 2.3 Mbyte)

10th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Aarhus, 2011
Increasing the Competition on Reserve for Balancing Wind Power with the help of Ensemble Forecasts
[Paper] (334kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 570kB)

German Wind Energy Conference DEWEK 2010 Bremen
Using Ensembles for Large-scale Forecasting of Wind Power in a European SuperGrid context
[Paper] (PDF 253kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 437 Kbyte) - Conference

8th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms
A new algorithm for Upscaling and Short-term forecasting of wind power using Ensemble forecasts, Bremen, Germany, October, 2009
[Paper] (PDF 493 Kbyte)
[Presentation] (PDF 437 Kbyte)

2009 UWIG Workshop "Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations", Februar 2009 - Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Short-term Forecasting and Optimisation using Ensembles

Europäische Wind Energie Konferenz EWEC'08, Brüssel, Belgium, 2008
HRensembleHR Project Progress in applying Short-range Ensemble Forecasts for Offshore Wind power
[Poster] (PDF 1.2 Mbytes )
[Full Text] (PDF 232 Kbytes)

Industrie Workshop der AESO Wind Forecasting Study (Juni 2008)
- WEPROG Forecasting Results & Recommendations
- All Presentations
- Webcast

AESO Windlesitungs Prpgnose Pilot Projekt (Mai 2008):
- Final Project Report
- Presentation.

Europäische Offshore Wind Energie Konference EOW 2007, Berlin:
HRENSEMBLE: High Resolution Ensemble For Horns Rev Project Progress, European Offshore Wind Energy Conference, Berlin, 2007.

AESO Wind Power Prognose Pilot Projekt Vor-Konferenz Session, 24th April 2007, Calgary, Alberta, Canada:
MSEPS Setup for the AESO Pilot study and preliminary results from the Training Phase

CanWEA/AWEA Seminar - Wind Energie Integration and Prognosen – April 25 – 26, 2007, Calgary, Alberta, Kanada:
Wind Energy Integration and Forecasting in Denmark and Germany

Deutsche Wind Energie Konferenz DEWEK 2006 Bremen:
Foercasting Wind Power in high Wind Penetration Markets using Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction Methods:

Globale Wind Energie Konferenz GWEC 2006 Adelaide, Australien:
Forecasting total wind power generation on the Republic of Ireland Grid with a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System

Renewable Energy &amp Maritime Konferenz 2006, Dublin, Irland:
Aggregate Forecasting of Wind Power Generation on the Irish Grid using a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System:

Europäische Wind Energie Konferenz EWEC 2006 Athen, Griechenland:
Application of a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecating in Ireland and comparison with validation results from Denmark and Germany: